For many retailers, peak sales account for up to 32% of annual revenue. Taking this into account, we have taken the time to share insights with you on order volumes during the peak trading season, including Black Friday weekend, pre-Christmas peak, and post-Christmas sales.
Lee Thompson, CEO at fulfilmentcrowd, said: “In 2024, online Black Friday sales in the UK reached £1.12 billion.* Our data shows that daily order averages increased by 42% over Black Friday weekend, when compared to the daily average across the wider peak months [between 1st November and 31st January].”
fulfilmentcrowd’s Lee Thompson
According to fulfilmentcrowd research, here are the busiest days for peak orders (1 Nov-31 Jan) in order:
- Monday 2nd December (Cyber Monday)
- Monday 16th December
- Monday 9th December
- Tuesday 3rd December
- Monday 30th December
- Monday 20th January (Blue Monday)
- Tuesday 25th November
- Monday 6th January
- Monday 13th January
- Monday 27th January
Remarkably, Black Friday came in at position #11, narrowly missing out on the top ten. Cyber Sunday came in at position #35, and Cyber Saturday came in at position #75, showing that while Black Friday weekend kicks off festive spending, the lead up to Christmas sees most orders during Peak.
Here are the busiest days during Black Friday weekend for order volumes:
- Black Friday – 30% of all weekend sales
- Cyber Saturday – 8.5% of all weekend sales
- Cyber Sunday – 19.5% of all weekend sales
- Cyber Monday – 42% of all weekend sales
Again, this highlights how Cyber Monday brought in the most orders for many retailers during this period, 12 percentage points higher than Black Friday!
Here are the week-on-week increase in orders during Black Friday weekend:
- Black Friday – +56.6%
- Cyber Saturday – +659% (due to order volumes the week prior being particularly low)
- Cyber Sunday – +45.3%
- Cyber Monday – +35.6%
Thompson added: “Our data also shows that the busiest day of UK peak trading wasn’t Black Friday itself, but Cyber Monday, showing that UK shoppers delayed big purchases until the final moment of the BF weekend. Plus, it was Cyber Saturday that saw the largest week-on-week order increase (+659%) of the four BF weekend dates.”
The analysis also revealed that return levels spike BEFORE Christmas, proving that early Black Friday purchases drive early returns. Previous research by fulfilmentcrowd revealed that UK shoppers return ~30% of fashion items bought online each year, and that the majority (62%) have – or would – bracket in some capacity when it comes to purchasing fashion items online.
When looking at post-Black Friday, there are several pre-Christmas and post-Christmas peaks; for example, mid-December order volumes held steady (only a 4% increase week-on-week) suggesting UK shoppers reached peak buying earlier than expected.
While there are still some last-minute shoppers, the data showed a 72% decrease between 23rd December and Christmas Eve. A small proportion (0.03% of all orders made between 1st November and 31st January) can’t wait and are shopping on Christmas Day itself.
Boxing Day then saw an 83% drop in orders compared with the week before, showing shoppers shift from delivery to returns and in-store sales once Christmas passes. The New Year sales triggered an 811% surge in orders compared with Boxing Day, marking the strongest rebound of the peak period, illustrating the double wave of ‘returns + sale buying.’
In particular, Mondays in December and January were shopping hotspots, making up 80% of the top ten dates for order volumes between 1st November and 31st January. Blue Monday – the name given to the third Monday in January, touted as the ‘most depressing day of the year’ – placed sixth in the top ten.
Thompson summarised: “Overall, the data highlights that early November shows a strong baseline, followed by a spike during Cyber Weekend. That demand remains stable but high through mid-December, before collapsing on Christmas week, and then seeing another massive jump in January sales. Despite these insights, retailers should also use last year’s performance data to prepare for this year’s peak.
“Analyse order volumes, shipping delays, stockouts, and returns from your last peak season – use these insights to adjust forecasts, optimise your inventory levels, and improve your operational workflows with your fulfilment partner. Using the latest tools in your fulfilment platform – such as demand forecasting and inventory planning software – can help significantly with this.”
When it comes to sharing forecasting data, Thompson recommends providing as much information on volume projections, product mix, promotional calendars, and expected demand as possible: “Historical sales data and growth trends also help your provider prepare resources accordingly. Using forecasting tools can help you anticipate demand by leveraging historical data from your previous peak periods.”
Published 01/12/2025
