By Scurri

Peak is no longer a spike

During Peak this year, delivery and post-purchase technology can help retailers protect margin and maximise returns, explains Rory O’Connor, CEO at Scurri.

The strategy for preparing for a dramatic surge around Black Friday, Cyber Monday and the final Christmas delivery window needs to change. Scurri’s network data shows that parcel volumes across Q4 2025 rose by just 0.4% year on year.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday grew by only 1.8%, while Christmas week was virtually flat at 0.3%. Demand did not disappear, but it spread across a longer promotional season as more retailers adopted a “Black Month” approach.

A flatter peak does not necessarily make things any easier because retailers must sustain promotional activity, fulfilment capacity and customer service over several weeks, while shoppers continue to expect speed, visibility and certainty. There may simply be no dramatic volume spike to absorb the additional costs.

The priority for peak 2026 can therefore be return on each order, not simply volume. Retailers can extract more value from every order while protecting margin, keeping delivery promises and retaining customers. Here are our five practical tips for achieving that.

1. Plan from evidence, not last year’s assumptions

Headline forecasts don’t really tell the whole story. Scurri’s data shows substantial differences between markets and categories. Germany, for example, grew 34.7% during Q4 2025 and 44.7% year on year in Q2 2026. By contrast, UK volumes fell 2.9% in Q2, while the US remained down by 26%.

Retailers can model peak demand by market, category, service and promotional period. Marketing and logistics teams would benefit from agreeing expected volumes and service levels before campaigns are committed. Otherwise, a successful promotion can create costs and delivery failures that destroy the commercial return.

AI can sharpen that planning by combining historic orders with live trading patterns, promotional calendars and carrier performance. Its value is not a supposedly perfect forecast, but the ability to test scenarios and adjust capacity as demand moves.

2. Build flexibility into the carrier network

No single carrier or delivery service can offer the best combination of cost, capacity and performance for every order throughout peak. Yet too many retailers still rely on a fixed allocation that leaves them exposed when a carrier reaches capacity, applies surcharges or suffers disruption.

A multi-carrier strategy provides resilience, but several contracts are not enough. Services can be integrated, tested at volume and ready to receive orders dynamically according to destination, parcel profile, promised date, performance and cost.

This is one of the clearest applications for AI. Intelligent carrier selection can assess those variables for each consignment and choose the service most likely to deliver on time and within the retailer’s commercial rules. The objective is a higher proportion of first time, on time deliveries at a sustainable cost.

3. Offer choice without making promises you cannot keep

Speed remains important, Next Day accounted for 34.8% of peak delivery preference in Scurri’s data, but there is more to it than that.

Signature delivery is growing strongly as customers seek security and proof for higher-value purchases, while Two-Day delivery is emerging as an attractive compromise between speed and value.

Retailers should reconsider “standard delivery” and present choices that reflect the customer, order and destination. Someone buying an expensive gift may value a signature more than raw speed while another may accept two day delivery for a lower charge.

Crucially, checkout should show a credible delivery date rather than a vague range. AI-supported allocation and live performance data can help ensure that the promise displayed is one the retailer and carrier can actually keep. Conversion achieved through an unrealistic promise is a false economy if the resulting failure loses the customer.

4. Manage exceptions before customers chase them

Delivery problems are most damaging when the retailer learns about them from the customer. During peak, “where is my order?” contacts can overwhelm service teams just as operational pressure reaches its height.

Retailers benefit from branded tracking, accurate notifications and a clear exception-management process. AI can identify shipments at risk by detecting patterns across scans, routes and carrier performance, then trigger the right intervention or communication.

That might mean rerouting an order, warning a customer early, offering a revised delivery choice or escalating a high value shipment to a person.

Scurri’s consumer research found that 59% of UK shoppers expect retailers to use AI during peak, with order and delivery tracking the area they most want improved. Customers are not asking for technology theatre. They want fewer surprises and faster solutions.

5. Treat returns as part of peak rather than an afterthought

Peak does not end when the final Christmas order arrives. Boxing Day starts the next operational test, followed by the January returns surge. A slow, confusing returns experience can undo the loyalty earned during the sale.

Retailers should forecast returns, agree carrier capacity and make the process easy before peak. Returns data can identify products, descriptions or fulfilment decisions creating avoidable cost.

AI can predict patterns, prioritise inventory for resale and flag anomalies, but the policy must remain commercially sensible and customer friendly.

From recommendation to controlled action

The next development will be agentic AI, systems that are able not only to identify a likely delivery problem but to resolve it within rules set by the retailer. An agent might select an alternative carrier, update the customer and authorise a defined remedy without waiting for manual intervention.

That does not mean giving technology unlimited freedom. Retailers should define cost thresholds, service standards, escalation points and the decisions that always require human approval. The strongest applications will combine autonomous action with clear commercial controls and full visibility.

The truth is that peak volume may no longer cover up weak operational decisions. With growth subdued and customer expectations rising, retailers cannot rely on a seasonal sales surge to rescue margin.

Peak 2026 will be won earlier, through better forecasting, a flexible carrier network, credible delivery promises, proactive communications and a returns plan ready before the first promotion launches.

Published 01/10/2026