Early signs show that Black Friday 2025 wasn’t the chaotic, discount free-for-all of years past, instead reflecting a more selective, strategic UK market amidst the backdrop of cost-of-living fears and savvier shoppers.
As the peak trading weekend is put behind us and brands look ahead to Christmas and 2026, early signs tell us that Black Friday is becoming less about blanket deals and more about understanding who is willing to buy, what convinces them and how to ensure orders arrive as promised.
What the forecast told us: Spend to hold strong, but participation to decrease
Initial forecasts told us that UK shoppers would spend £6.4 billion over the Black Friday period in 2025, an increase on 2024. However, only 46% of consumers planned to participate, down from 53% last year.
What this tells us:
- Fewer shoppers, but those who shop will spend more (PwC expected basket values around £262 per person)
- Participation is down, meaning brands must work harder to earn purchases
- Value matters; shoppers won’t buy simply because of discounts, but are ready to spend if value is there
Early insights: Footfall declines but online holds firm
As the dust settles on Black Friday and retailers compile data, early indications show that UK shops felt lower participation predictions come to life.
MRI Software reports that visitors to high street stores were down 2% on Friday and 7.2% compared with the equivalent days last year.
Contrast these numbers with early online spend and it paints a different picture. On the day, live Nationwide data showed a 10.36% increase in YoY transaction volume, further proving that the modern Black Friday is a digital-first peak.
Promotional tactics: Black Fri-week or Black November?
Continual discounting is a trend that’s surfaced over recent years, in which brands try to capture the attention of shoppers by spreading discounts over a long period of time.
Many now refer to Black Friday as Black November, a nod to these extended periods of discounting in which brands slash prices throughout the entire month that Black Friday falls in.
Rather than month-long discounting, many fulfilmentcrowd clients opted to focus discounts and promotions over just one week.
“What we’re seeing across our client base is that many brands have concentrated their discounts and marketing firepower on one week, rather than just on Black Friday itself or throughout the entirety of November,” said fulfilmentcrowd Account Manager Kirsty Anderson.
“It’s a strategic response to more cautious, deal-savvy shoppers. If you want to stand out, you need a compelling offer, delivered at the moment where attention is at its highest. Our customers recognise that it’s not just about deeper discounts, but smarter timing and effective fulfilment to convert on short windows of intent.”
Why this works:
- Shorter windows heighten urgency: Drawn-out offers can dilute impact. A defined run gives busy shoppers time to take advantage but also keeps them attentive to flash deals.
- Operational control improves. A shorter discounting window leads to more predictable demand, helping warehouse operations, carrier capacity planning and stock allocation.
- Margin is protected. Retailers avoid steep product markdowns over a long period of time.
With many brands landing on ‘Black Fri-week’ as their discounting window, it feels as though this is the optimal window to keep shoppers engaged and protect operational function.
Longer discounting windows could also be behind decreases in on-the-day order volumes, with shoppers able to take advantage of offers throughout the entire week or month.
The growth of the premium ‘no discount’ movement
Another clear shift was the number of brands – especially in fashion, homeware, wellness and luxury – consciously opting out of Black Friday.
Examples include:
- “We don’t do Black Friday” homepage takeovers
- An emphasis on craftmanship and seasonless collections
- Sustainability and price-conscious messaging
- Limited edition releases instead of cost markdowns
It’s a bold strategy, but one that can pay off for a brand’s image if it’s the right fit.
Here’s why it can work in 2025:
- Price integrity can boost trust in certain corners of the market
- Tighter demand planning tools means brands hold less excess stock
- Discounts could potentially undermine brand promises of longevity, quality or craftsmanship
It’s an interesting outlook, and one that challenges the psychology of discount-savvy shoppers who are bombarded with offers in the run-up to Black Friday.
Why fulfilment and delivery performance matter more than ever
Discounts and promotions only get you in the door; converting these purchases into long-term loyalty is a battle that begins at checkout.
Ofcom’s parcel delivery report tells us that 67% of UK shoppers experienced an issue with a delivery in 2024. With networks becoming more strained over the peak trading window, the threat of ‘bad delivery’ rises also.
What this means for retailers:
- It’s important not to rely on a single carrier
- Delivery clarity contributes to long-term trust
- Tracking transparency reduces Where is my order? (WISMO) claims
- Returns and refunds are tied to customer loyalty
With the sea of deals and discounts available to savvy shoppers, it’s the post-purchase experience that sets brands apart from one another in a digital-first peak.
What early Black Friday 2025 indications teach us heading into Christmas and 2026
Three themes stand out when reviewing forecasts versus early performance data.
1. must complement discounting
Shoppers are more cautious than ever, and are choosing brands they trust over those that simply slash prices.
2. Peak is shorter, sharper and more emotionally driven
Discount fatigue means shoppers tune out noise until an offer resonates. The rise in retailers opting out of Black Friday also illustrates a growing shift in brand psychology, whether it be in the name of ethics, image or margins.
3. December could outperform November
With many delaying major purchases – plus the growth of Cyber Monday in the UK and Christmas gifting – December could top November for spending in certain categories.
Looking ahead to 2026: Why the Black Friday we just saw could be a warning
The latest Black Friday taught us that consumer caution isn’t temporary, meaning discounting must be smarter – not just bigger or longer.
Fulfilment and delivery quality remain key metrics in building trust, with discount fatigue – or consumers simply expecting discounts – putting brands on a level playing field until the post-purchase experience.
The gap between online and in-store also continues to widen as footfall declines on the high street, and many brands continue to opt out of the promotional weekend entirely.
To summarise: Black Friday is becoming less about discounts, and more about building trust through several competitive differentiators.
Published 04/12/2025
