By Ellie-Rose Davies, Content Executive at IMRG In this blog we review expectations for online trading in 2026, looking at our forecast and industry expert predictions on what can help drive growth. Contents of this blog include:

• IMRGs 2026 Forecast
• Introducing AI
• AI and discounting
• AI and product discovery
• AI and fulfilment
• Being ready to combat the negative side of AI
• Not forgetting the human element

IMRGs 2026 Forecast

IMRG forecast that the total online market will achieve a year-on-year growth of 0%. Thats right, we do not expect growth nor decline for the sector. This prediction is based on the trends revealed by our Online Retail Index.

Source: IMRG's Online Retail Index and 2026 Forecast

The chart above shows the actual performance for 2025, that then leads into expected performance for 2026 (yellow line), and what good growth could look like (green line), as well as poor performance (red line). We can expect growth in months such as May, June, and July, but declines in April and September. The forecast for the start of 2026 has been on the right lines, where the result for January was -3.7% YoY. Our online product category forecast is: Clothing: -4% YoY Electricals: 0% Gifts: +2% Health & Beauty: +5% Home & Garden: +1% Sports and outdoors: +8% We anticipate that Health & Beauty and Sports & Outdoors will continue the positive momentum seen in recent years, and we unfortunately believe Clothing will experience yet another decline. Retailers have revealed to us the top areas of interest for this year include customer-focussed strategies, such as UX and retention, but a core focus area is on AI. Our community of industry experts have also provided their expectations for online trading in 2026, with most reflecting on how AI will be at the forefront of strategies. Heres what they have to say on the topic