By Jacob Hopewell, nShift

Every surge in outbound orders sends a wave of returns back through the business a few weeks later. That second peak is harder to forecast, and it decides how much of the first one's margin you keep.

Most retailers plan peak as one event. The forecasts, the carrier capacity, the temporary warehouse staff, and the promotional calendar all point towards the moment the last Christmas parcel leaves the building.

Then the parcels start coming back. Every outbound surge creates a matching wave of returns in late December and January, and it lands on warehouses, carriers and customer-service teams that have only just come through the first rush. The outbound peak earns the margin. The returns peak decides how much of it stays.

That changes the commercial goal for peak. Shipping as many orders as possible is only half of it. The other half is protecting the value of each order after it has been delivered.

Peak now lasts five weeks, and so does the fallout

Last year showed how wide the first wave has become. Across the nShift platform, Black Friday 2025 generated more than twice the shipment volume of an ordinary early-November Friday. The wider peak ran for roughly five weeks, from 17 November to 21 December, and 60% of shipments above the normal weekly level happened outside Black Week.

IMRG's own figures point the same way, with combined Black Friday and Cyber Monday event volumes up 15% year on year.

A five-week outbound peak produces a returns peak that is spread out, staggered and harder to read. Early Black Friday purchases come back in December while the outbound rush is still running. Gifts come back after Christmas. The volume is significant too: the NRF and Happy Returns estimated that 19.3% of online sales would be returned in 2025.

Where the second peak hits the business

Returns are hardest to absorb during peak because they arrive in a compressed window, when every team is already stretched. The pressure shows up in five places.

A second warehouse peak. Every returned item has to be received, checked, cleaned or repackaged and put back into stock. That work competes for the same people and the same floor space as outbound orders.

Cash flow. Refund liabilities rise just as peak sales revenue is being recognised, so the quarter looks different once January's refunds are booked.

Inventory distortion. Until a return is visible and graded, planning systems can show stock as unavailable even though it is physically on its way back. That is sellable product missing from the January sale.

Customer-service demand. Poor visibility produces "where is my refund?" contacts, chargebacks and disputes, all arriving when support teams are at their busiest.

Customer retention. In an nShift study, 42.3% of shoppers said a poor return would make them much less inclined to shop with that retailer again, and 28.8% said they would stop altogether.

That last figure should shape every peak plan. A customer won during Black Week can be lost in January over a single slow refund.

The return journey starts before the order

Shoppers read the returns policy before they buy. They check the charges, the drop-off options and how long a refund takes, and the answers feed directly into whether they place the order at all. During peak, when people are buying gifts in someone else's size and taste, that check carries more weight.

So the returns experience earns its keep in November as well as costing money in January. A clear policy, convenient drop-off choices and a predictable refund time all help the first sale happen.

A return can still keep the sale

Plenty of customers who send something back still want to buy from you. They want a different size, another colour or a similar product. A fast, easy exchange keeps that revenue in the business and keeps the relationship intact.

Shoppers are ready for it. In the nShift and IMRG returns report, 66.1% of UK shoppers said they would be likely to accept an easy exchange at the point of return instead of requesting a refund.

The point of return is where that intent is strongest. An exchange offered there, backed by live stock, holds on to the sale while the customer still wants to buy.

What a returns platform changes

Handling the second peak well comes down to seeing returns earlier and deciding on them faster. A returns platform supports that at each step.

• Self-service for shoppers. A branded portal lets customers register a return, pick a reason and choose a method without raising a support ticket. Every return registered this way is one fewer contact in the January queue.
• Automated returns decisions. Rules apply the correct return window and destination by market, order date, product, customer group or reason, so an extended Christmas returns window applies to the right orders without manual exceptions.
• Advance notice for the warehouse. Teams can see what is coming back, which items are involved and why, before the parcels arrive. Labour and processing space can be planned for the week ahead.
• Routing by condition and value. Products can go to a store, warehouse, repair centre, refurbishment partner or disposal route, depending on their condition and resale potential.
• Convenient carrier options. Customers can choose parcel shops, lockers, collection, post or in-store drop-off.
• Exchanges before refunds. Stock-aware exchanges for another size, colour or product keep the sale while the purchasing intent is still there.
• Structured return reasons. Reporting by SKU, market and carrier shows recurring problems with sizing, product descriptions, packaging, damage or delivery. Fix those, and next year's peak starts with a lower returns rate.

Hunkemöller is a good example of what this opens up. After introducing a digital returns flow, the retailer recorded a 15% shift towards in-store returns, which created more opportunities for assisted exchanges and repurchases.

Plan for both peaks this year

Most peak plans end on the last delivery date before Christmas. Extend yours to the end of January. Forecast returns alongside outbound volumes, give the warehouse sight of what is coming back before it arrives, and put the exchange in front of the refund.

The retailers who plan for the second wave will keep more of what the first one earned.

Published 05/11/2026